It is no longer all about timing and price. Logistics is a partner.
LLG NOW INCLUDES WEEKLY RAIL & TRUCK LOGISTICS UPDATES
SEE THE STATISTICS...READ THE FORECASTS.
"WRT"...WEEKLY RAIL TRAFFIC REPORT
"LTR": FLATBED TRUCK "LOAD-TO-TRUCK RATIO"
Are mills getting more or less cars and trucks? When will your lumber really ship?
•ADD LOGISTICS TO THE LUMBER FORECAST AND STAY A LAP AHEAD OF THE COMPETITION.
Welcome to Layman's Lumber Guide
•LUMBER MARKET FORECAST...lumber market forecasts with buying and selling strategies for the coming weeks that profit from weekly price volatility.
Published Sunday evenings.
•LUMBER MARKET BRIEFINGS...weekly...abbreviated update forecast.
Published Wednesday evenings.
•LUMBER MARKET BLUEPRINT...once monthly...forecast with 30-60-90 day buying and bidding strategies.
Published the last day of each month.
Each publication contains buying and selling strategies that build an advantageous, un-level playing field with a seemingly unfair competitive edge...reducing lumber costs, improving inventory management and sharpening future job bids by anticipating price changes.
LLG's framing lumber forecasts projects the rise and fall of lumber prices with staggering accuracy. Each is a reliable source for answers...for awareness...for additional profits on every transaction.
Working with commodity lumber prices since 1985, Layman’s Lumber Guide advises buying and selling strategies that beat the lumber market...with an average week to week 86% accuracy.
A completely independent publication, Layman’s Lumber Guide specializes in forecasting turning dates for the North American softwood framing lumber and oriented strand board markets. We anticipate, up to one year in advance, the specific weeks during the year WHEN lumber and OSB highs, lows, hops, skips, and jumps will most likely occur.
Layman's Lumber Guide-Lumber Market Forecasts contain weekly strategies for when to increase or decrease inventories; when to be aggressive or passive...weeks and months prior to significant price swings.
Please continue browsing our website to learn more About publisher Matt Layman and visit the Archive page to see past issues. Contact Us with any questions or comments you might have or submit your Subscription request.
Thank you for visiting Layman’s Lumber Guide.
Looking Forward...Matt Layman
Product dimensions referred to herein do not imply actual net sizes, rather are commonly used descriptions of the products.
LAYMAN'S LUMBER GUIDE...
The Lumber Market Is Easy to Beat When You Know What is Coming
TOMORROW'S HEADLINES TODAY
What would you give to have a copy of next week's Wall Street Journal TODAY?
LLG is exactly that for lumber...Sunday FORECAST & Wednesday BRIEFING and monthly BLUEPRINT lumber and OSB market forecasts project:
•when the market will rise and fall
•how much price could change
•how long it will take to do so.
This Is How the Good Ol' Boys Lumber Market Really Works
The softwood framing lumber market moves in a predictable, repeating pattern, with short-term influences that can make it look wildly random to the untrained eye.
Prove it yourself. Click on the "Historical Charts" page above. Look at a few of any the last 15 years and look for the following. (It is best seen on an average of several yearly charts... 5, 10 or 15)
•Martin Luther King Day, late February through Easter: higher.
•Easter through Memorial Day, LARGEST VARIABLE. Market makes Annual High, one or the other,
depending upon early or late spring buying.
•Memorial Day, mid-late May through July 4th: lower.
•Early-mid July variable, but mostly: higher. (Summer Bump)
•Mid July-late August, lower. (Annual Low.)
•Late August-early October, higher.
•Early October-late October (Variable, occasionally tests August low):Flat.
•Late October - New Year's, higher.
The lumber market tops just before demand begins increase and bottoms just before demand begins to decrease.
Bass-ackwards, wouldn't you think? This is why that happens. In order for builders to have lumber delivered on job sites during their peak demand season (May-August), their suppliers (distribution centers, contractor yards, component plants and wood preservers) must be ready to make quick job site deliveries (daily). Thus, they must already have accumulated or increased inventory. Some items, like in 2018 could take up to a month, maybe two, to arrive. In effect, during March, April and May, the industry's inventory moves from producer to the "field". LLG refers to that as a "BULLISH INVENTORY SHIFT." Producers take increased volumes of orders...so prices rise. MLK through Easter or Memorial Day.
Conversely, from mid late May through July, suppliers, "the field", liquidate or reduce inventories, replacing less than they are shipping to job sites. Consequently, producers get fewer orders, inventory shifts back to the producers LLG refers to that as a "BEARISH INVENTORY SHIFT." Consequently, prices fall Memorial Day through July 4th.
After these largest annual price swings, from July 4th through Labor Day, producers and dealers wrestle with under bought and over produced conditions, making the summer the most inconsistent trading period. Early July most often has a summer bump, thens prices weaken into late August.
Most often the lumber market bottoms out for the year in late August due to a grossly under bought condition. The September Surge brings a strong 6-week price advance. Occasionally, we get a retest of that August low from late October through early November.
From late October through New Year's prices firm in response to suppliers prematurely reducing inventories in preparation for year-end inventory and winter.
As you can see there are some very significant variable times during the repeating cycle. My job is to identify when and how much those variables will impact price movement, then provide our members with maximum profitable buying and selling strategies.
VOLATILITY IS THE LUMBER BUYERS' BEST FRIEND
Lumber prices change, either up or down, an average of 37 weeks per year. At $600 fob mill, prices change an average of $14 per week with $20 changes very common. At $300 fob mill, prices change an average of $5 per week with $20 changes very rare. The lumber market may seem complicated, however there are relationship imbalances between supply and demand that occur every week.
These phenomena create massive opportunities for lumber producers, wholesalers, lumber dealers, wood preservers, component manufacturers, and builders.
Mastering the lumber market requires a simple, recurring "Action Plan"
that ANTICIPATES and EXPLOITS price volatility.
5 COMPONENTS OF THE "CADDA" LUMBER PLAN
•1 COLLECT INFORMATION: HISTORICAL...What has happened in the past under similar circumstances?
CURRENT...What are the immediate influences? (I do that for you.)
•2 ANALYZE the FACTS and the EMOTIONS...separate the two. (I do that for you.)
•3 DETERMINE a LIKELY IMPACT...how the traders emotions interact with the facts. (I do that for you.)
•4 DECIDE a COURSE of ACTION...What is the best buying [inventory management] and selling [job bidding] approach? WHEN should the strategy be implemented? (I do that for you.)
•5 ACT...PULL the TRIGGER WITH CONFIDENCE. (YOU DO THAT.)
[Hundreds of thousands of dollars can be saved each year just by knowing which day of the week to buy lumber.]
LLG EMPOWERS ITS MEMBERS TO EMBRACE AND ENGAGE PRICE VOLATILITY WITH CONFIDENCE by:
• Managing Inventory Turns [having more or less lumber at the appropriate time].
• Correctly Bidding Future Jobs [protecting profits in rising markets and securing more jobs in falling markets.]
"WHEN to make your move" is the Lumber Traders Most Important Consideration
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